Figures released today show that inflation in South Africa is not slowing down, if anything it continues to go up. Consumer price inflation data showed that the CPIX rate was 8.8% in January 2008 this is much more that the expected 8.4%. This increase in inflation is now putting more pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates again.
The central bank had predicted that the CPIX rate would come down within its target of between 3 – 6% in the final quarter of this year but with the way things are going, the central bank maybe forced to re-look their predictions as it is very unlikely that inflation will drop by that much this year. Some economists are predicting that inflation could reach the 9% mark in the next few months and that the rate could only starting getting back within the 3 – 6% target in mid 2009.
With the ever rising oil prices and food prices it is no shock that the inflation rate is where it is today. The electricity shortages currently being experienced in South Africa are not helping to. There is an electricity hike coming soon and a petrol hike expected before that as well. So the 9% mark economists are predicting can easily be reached.
It will be interesting to see how the central bank handles this, whether they increase interest rates on not. There is what is called an “explanation clause” which the central bank can use so as to not hike rates. The clause allows the central bank to keep rates where they are despite inflation being out of the target range, provided the bank can give reason for doing so. So some explaining may need to be done by the central bank to get out of this one.
Tito Mobeni busy destroying 100% of the real value of the Rand over the next 8 years.
The BusinessDay article: Ides of January, like, most probably all BusinessDay articles about inflation included some inflation gibberish - as usual.
“WHEN inflation starts coming in consistently higher than the market expects, it can be a sign that underlying price pressures are building up.”
WHEN inflation starts coming in consistently higher than the market expects - it is a 100% sure sign that money supply growth is too high. Fact: excessive money supply growth = increased inflation. Apparently too simple for South Africa/Tito Mobeni/BusinessDay to understand.
The market was told (way back when) to expect 3 to 6 percent. The market is human so, like our wallets, purses, desk drawers, briefcases, etc inflation always overflows on the up-side. (Someone can do a Phd to prove what we already know.) First 7%, then 8%, now it is 9%. Very natural and very human. In the US they call 3% inflation “very high inflation”.
So, the big mistake was made in setting the 3 to 6% inflation target: restricted by our current limited understanding of deflation, inflation should be set at not more than 2% - as is done by 90% (by GDP) of the world economy . This is the ECB´s silly definition of price stability. More inflation gibberish. The ECB´s silliness is AKA market consensus, peer pressure, lemming instinct, GAAP, keeping up with the Joneses, regurgitating current economics jargon, junk, etc.
Congratulations (excuse my Portuguese): 2% year-on-year inflation is a high degree of price stability. Alan Greenspan speak: “Price stability obtains when economic agents no longer take account of the prospective change in the general price level in their economic decision-making”. Remember: 2% inflation destroys 51% of all real value not updated over 35 years. That includes, of course, all money and retained income which cannot be updated in low inflation economies.
Not inflation gibberish: Definition - Price stability is a year-on-year increase of 0% in the CPI. Ponto final: nothing else. Source: maths/logic/common sense/Alan Greenspan/Real Value Accounting. Take your pick.
Food price inflation, house price inflation, wage inflation, agricultural inflation, etc. There is no such thing as food price inflation or house price inflation - even if the Bank of England uses the phrase and all of you use the phrases. Yes Sir, there are house price increases and food price increases and wage increases and agricultural price increases.
No-one would think that highly educated economists, central bankers and chartered accountants, BusinessDay (to name but a few of the economics and accounting intelligencia) would consistently, uniformly, steadily, tirelessly and forever and a day use a very powerful economic term “inflation” with two completely different meanings side by side ALL THE TIME. But, you do: AKA market consensus, peer pressure, lemming instinct, GAAP, keeping up with the Joneses, regurgitating current economics jargon, junk, etc.
Not inflation gibberish: Inflation is an increase in the general level of prices.
Not inflation gibberish: Inflation is paying more money for the same real value.
Not inflation gibberish: A price increase is paying more money for more real value.
Not inflation gibberish: Everybody uses inflation to mean the two different things at the same time, in the same article and even sometimes in the same sentence.
Very few people understand current generally accepted knowledge about inflation. The ubiquitous presence of inflation gibberish further compounds the aura of complexity around inflation.
Let me knock you out:
Inflation actually has two components: a monetary component called cash inflation and a non-monetary component called Historical Cost Accounting inflation. See Real Value Accounting
[You will fight this fact tooth and nail. But, that is your job.]
Revoking the stable measuring unit assumption stops Historical Cost Accounting Inflation forever.
Revoking the stable measuring unit assumption in SA would most probably double the SA economic growth rate and half poverty in half the time the government plans.
On the contrary:
With 9% inflation - and counting - the SA government will never half poverty by 2014. How can they when Tito Mobeni destroys 9% - per annum - of all real value created in SA that is never updated, eg the real value of the current money supply plus the real value of all retained income and the real value of all issued share capital values of SA companies with no well located and well maintained land and/or buildings or other variable real value non-monetary items able to be revalued at least equal to the original real value of each contribution of issued share capital. In general: the share capital of all SA companies with no fixed assets.
Instead of helping the SA government to half poverty by 2014, Tito Mobeni will destroy 100% of the real value of all money in circulation today in SA in the next 8 years as well as 100% of the real value of all retained income retained by all SA companies today and remaining in the companies for the next 8 years as well as 100% of all the real value of all the issued share capital of all the SA companies described in the previous paragraph.
Prices will at least double in the next 8 years.
Tito Mobeni is busy destroying 100% of the real value of the Rand over the next 8 years - or even quicker, if past experience is taken into account - because we made the mistake of asking 3 to 6% inflation from him.
If we had asked not more than 2% inflation from him - like 90% of the world economy (by GDP) is doing with their central bankers - then we would be worried about 3% inflation at the moment and not 9%.
First he has to be appointed and never speak to the government till his last day on the job.